---
id: "1.5"
title: "Strategy and bets"
dept: company-and-strategy
status: needs-you
owner: Param
branded: false
last_verified: 2026-10-26
sources:
  - "brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-6 statement, where-we-sit; b-10 partnership-goals; b-11 edge, moat, risks"
  - "brand-directions/book/content/a.js a-5 ladder"
  - "brew origin/main a559de6: SCOPE.md:7-14, tools/prod-env.sh:9"
  - "brew working tree docs/pricing.md:20-23, untracked"
  - "handbook content/ai-and-models/cost-per-brand.md Numbers"
  - "memory: keep-all-moves, brew-pricing-parked, brew-live-stores, brew-name-and-scope, brew-prod-backend"
---

# Strategy and bets

## Answer

The few bets Brew is making, what would prove each right or wrong, and the order we test them in; the sources give the wedge and the ladder but never name the bets, so the list below is a proposal for Param.

## Today

### What the sources already commit to

| Commitment | Source |
|---|---|
| The wedge: read the store before drafting anything, with a source on every number | [src: brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-11 edge] |
| The shelf: most tools either read the store or ship the work; we read, decide, draft, then hand off | [src: brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-6 where-we-sit] |
| One power per version: drafts, then posting with a yes, then results, then ads inside rules | [src: brand-directions/book/content/a.js a-5 ladder] |
| Learn with design partners before pricing | [src: memory brew-pricing-parked] [src: brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-10 partnership-goals] |
| Five real design partner prospects on production since 25 Oct | [src: memory brew-live-stores] [src: memory brew-prod-backend] |
| Keep every Play; make each cheaper | [src: memory keep-all-moves] |
| Global product, acting on the brand's own stack | [src: memory brew-name-and-scope] |
| The moat grows with use: what we know about a store, then what worked | [src: brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-11 moat] |

### The tension the bets must settle

- The pricing proposal estimates v1 brain cost at about $15 a brand a month against a $79 plan [src: brew working tree docs/pricing.md:20-23]
- The caps in the code allow far more: the cost per brand page proposes up to about $180 a month before drafts, not measured [src: content/ai-and-models/cost-per-brand.md Numbers]
- No brand has a measured monthly cost yet [src: content/ai-and-models/cost-per-brand.md Open]

## Tomorrow

The proposed bets, in the order we test them.

| # | Bet | Right if | Wrong if | Version | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reading first beats a blank box | Partners heart and hand off Plays from their own evidence most weeks | Not for me outnumbers hearts across partners for a month | v1 | New |
| 2 | A weekly hand off habit forms before any posting | Three of five partners hand off in three weeks running | No partner hands off two weeks running by the end of the partnership | v1 | New |
| 3 | One brand costs well under its plan | A measured month per brand sits under a third of the plan price | Measured cost sits above half the plan price after the cheapest models that keep quality | v1 | New |
| 4 | Trust earned in v1 carries into posting | Partners say yes to the first scheduled posts and keep the dial up | Partners turn posting off after trying it | v2 | New |
| 5 | Results make next week smarter | Graded results change the ranking and hand offs rise | Results arrive too late or too noisy to change a pick | v3 | New |

## How we do it

1. Test one bet at a time, in order; bet 3 runs beside bets 1 and 2 because it needs only logs.
2. Each bet has one owner and one review date.
3. When a bet is proven or broken, write it in the decisions log with the evidence and update this page.
4. A broken bet changes the plan, never the truth rules.

## Numbers

| Metric | Bet | Where measured | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart to Not for me ratio per partner a week | 1 | Card reactions | Proposed |
| Weeks in a row with a hand off, per partner | 2 | Brief records | Proposed |
| Measured cost per brand a month | 3 | Spend files plus AI tags per brand | Proposed, not measured |
| Share of scheduled posts approved | 4 | Need your yes log, v2 | Proposed |

## Open

1. **Are these the bets?** Proposal: accept bets 1 to 3 for the design partnership and keep 4 and 5 as the later order.
2. **Who owns each bet?** Proposal: Param owns 1 and 2, Sai owns 3 with the cost per brand work, Sai reviews 2 with partner calls, since team and roles proposes Sai for design partner relationships.
3. **Review date for bets 1 to 3.** Proposal: the end of the six week partner programme the book proposes, or 7 Dec 2026, six weeks from today, if no programme date is set.