{
 "id": "1.5",
 "title": "Strategy and bets",
 "department": "Company and strategy",
 "department_slug": "company-and-strategy",
 "direction": null,
 "branded": false,
 "status": "needs-you",
 "owner": "Param",
 "last_verified": "Mon Oct 26",
 "holds": "Three to five bets, what proves each right or wrong, the order",
 "urls": {
  "html": "https://handbook.joinsquareup.com/company-and-strategy/strategy-and-bets",
  "markdown": "https://handbook.joinsquareup.com/company-and-strategy/strategy-and-bets.md",
  "json": "https://handbook.joinsquareup.com/company-and-strategy/strategy-and-bets.json"
 },
 "other_directions": [],
 "tldr": {
  "headline": "Five bets, tested in order, starting with reading before drafting",
  "points": [
   {
    "icon": "eye",
    "text": "Bet 1: reading first beats a blank box, judged by hearts against Not for me."
   },
   {
    "icon": "rocket",
    "text": "Bet 2: a weekly hand off habit forms before any posting."
   },
   {
    "icon": "money",
    "text": "Bet 3: one brand costs well under its plan, and nobody has measured it."
   },
   {
    "icon": "warn",
    "text": "The spec says about $15 a brand a month; the caps allow far more."
   },
   {
    "icon": "map",
    "text": "Bets 4 and 5, posting trust and results, wait for v2 and v3."
   }
  ],
  "stat": {
   "value": "$79",
   "label": "planned v1 plan a month"
  },
  "decide": "Are these the bets? Proposal: accept bets 1 to 3 now, and keep 4 and 5 for later.",
  "mood": "waiting"
 },
 "sources": [
  "brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-6 statement, where-we-sit; b-10 partnership-goals; b-11 edge, moat, risks",
  "brand-directions/book/content/a.js a-5 ladder",
  "brew origin/main a559de6: SCOPE.md:7-14, tools/prod-env.sh:9",
  "brew working tree docs/pricing.md:20-23, untracked",
  "handbook content/ai-and-models/cost-per-brand.md Numbers",
  "memory: keep-all-moves, brew-pricing-parked, brew-live-stores, brew-name-and-scope, brew-prod-backend"
 ],
 "open_questions": [
  "**Are these the bets?** Proposal: accept bets 1 to 3 for the design partnership and keep 4 and 5 as the later order.",
  "**Who owns each bet?** Proposal: Param owns 1 and 2, Sai owns 3 with the cost per brand work, Sai reviews 2 with partner calls, since team and roles proposes Sai for design partner relationships.",
  "**Review date for bets 1 to 3.** Proposal: the end of the six week partner programme the book proposes, or 7 Dec 2026, six weeks from today, if no programme date is set."
 ],
 "parts": {
  "Answer": "The few bets Brew is making, what would prove each right or wrong, and the order we test them in; the sources give the wedge and the ladder but never name the bets, so the list below is a proposal for Param.",
  "Today": "### What the sources already commit to\n\n| Commitment | Source |\n|---|---|\n| The wedge: read the store before drafting anything, with a source on every number | [src: brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-11 edge] |\n| The shelf: most tools either read the store or ship the work; we read, decide, draft, then hand off | [src: brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-6 where-we-sit] |\n| One power per version: drafts, then posting with a yes, then results, then ads inside rules | [src: brand-directions/book/content/a.js a-5 ladder] |\n| Learn with design partners before pricing | [src: memory brew-pricing-parked] [src: brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-10 partnership-goals] |\n| Five real design partner prospects on production since 25 Oct | [src: memory brew-live-stores] [src: memory brew-prod-backend] |\n| Keep every Play; make each cheaper | [src: memory keep-all-moves] |\n| Global product, acting on the brand's own stack | [src: memory brew-name-and-scope] |\n| The moat grows with use: what we know about a store, then what worked | [src: brand-directions/book/content/b.js b-11 moat] |\n\n### The tension the bets must settle\n\n- The pricing proposal estimates v1 brain cost at about $15 a brand a month against a $79 plan [src: brew working tree docs/pricing.md:20-23]\n- The caps in the code allow far more: the cost per brand page proposes up to about $180 a month before drafts, not measured [src: content/ai-and-models/cost-per-brand.md Numbers]\n- No brand has a measured monthly cost yet [src: content/ai-and-models/cost-per-brand.md Open]",
  "Tomorrow": "The proposed bets, in the order we test them.\n\n| # | Bet | Right if | Wrong if | Version | Tag |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| 1 | Reading first beats a blank box | Partners heart and hand off Plays from their own evidence most weeks | Not for me outnumbers hearts across partners for a month | v1 | New |\n| 2 | A weekly hand off habit forms before any posting | Three of five partners hand off in three weeks running | No partner hands off two weeks running by the end of the partnership | v1 | New |\n| 3 | One brand costs well under its plan | A measured month per brand sits under a third of the plan price | Measured cost sits above half the plan price after the cheapest models that keep quality | v1 | New |\n| 4 | Trust earned in v1 carries into posting | Partners say yes to the first scheduled posts and keep the dial up | Partners turn posting off after trying it | v2 | New |\n| 5 | Results make next week smarter | Graded results change the ranking and hand offs rise | Results arrive too late or too noisy to change a pick | v3 | New |",
  "How we do it": "1. Test one bet at a time, in order; bet 3 runs beside bets 1 and 2 because it needs only logs.\n2. Each bet has one owner and one review date.\n3. When a bet is proven or broken, write it in the decisions log with the evidence and update this page.\n4. A broken bet changes the plan, never the truth rules.",
  "Numbers": "| Metric | Bet | Where measured | Status |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| Heart to Not for me ratio per partner a week | 1 | Card reactions | Proposed |\n| Weeks in a row with a hand off, per partner | 2 | Brief records | Proposed |\n| Measured cost per brand a month | 3 | Spend files plus AI tags per brand | Proposed, not measured |\n| Share of scheduled posts approved | 4 | Need your yes log, v2 | Proposed |",
  "Open": "1. **Are these the bets?** Proposal: accept bets 1 to 3 for the design partnership and keep 4 and 5 as the later order.\n2. **Who owns each bet?** Proposal: Param owns 1 and 2, Sai owns 3 with the cost per brand work, Sai reviews 2 with partner calls, since team and roles proposes Sai for design partner relationships.\n3. **Review date for bets 1 to 3.** Proposal: the end of the six week partner programme the book proposes, or 7 Dec 2026, six weeks from today, if no programme date is set."
 }
}